Dan Welyk Realtor®  Since 1999

There Is No Substitute for Experience.

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What is happening in our real estate market? Are we going to see a surge in Calgary home prices like we did in 2006? Or is 2007 going to bring us stability?

Personally, I see our market stabilizing into an "average" market. Other’s predict 30 to 50 % increases again. Depends on who you talk to.

As we rolled through the fall months in 2006, we saw a massive increase in new listings. With this, we saw many homes sit on the market for 60+ days along with price reductions all over our city.

As December and January came, our inventory levels dropped off significantly. For the general public who watch market inventory levels on websites that provide listings, they had a mis-represented view of what was happening in our market. What they thought was a surge in buyers, was actually a large number of expired listings exiting the market. Several panicked and felt they should buy "right now" or miss out. False evidence.

As January 2007 matured, our Calgary real estate market saw a very large number of buyers like we saw in 2006 - in fact there were more sales this January than last year. The most important difference calming a price surge was the number of new listings entering the market - as well as the new home market in 2007 offers plenty of inventory. For example, the month of January 2007 we saw an increase of new listings over 2006 by 34.6%.

If the number of new MLS listings continue to be stronger than the number of sales we will be able to maintain this stabilization - this has been the case thus far in February. We must keep a very close eye on the number of new listings v. the number sales. We can flop either way.

I am going to ramble on a bit more here...

Going the opposite direction, who sees a drop in Calgary home prices? A market crash is inevitable - markets go up and down. But when will that happen?I listened to a report on the radio (more like caught a snippet), the gentleman speaking was referring to Canada housing markets in general. He was suggesting a significant drop in market values across our fine nation over the next couple years. I am unsure who he was or his reasoning - I will be
investigating this further to see what this is all about.
Keep in mind, all Calgary needs to crash the market is more months like we saw in September through November. Would not take much at all.

So, keep a very close eye on new listings v. actual sales - this is a very accurate way to monitor market activities.


 

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